Clan Relations, Political Fragmentation, and Elections Outcomes

Résumé

Somalia, frequently categorized as a failed state, has faced numerous challenges with power dynamics and clan-based tensions during its difficult transition from authoritarianism to democracy (Stremlau). Since 2016, Somalia’s indirect electoral system has been a critical component of its federal democratic framework, designed to navigate the country’s complex socio-political landscape (Menkhaus). Unlike direct elections, this system relies on clan elders and regional representatives to select members of parliament, who then elect the president (Wabwireh). Clientelism- clan-based loyalties, are significant features of the political system where clan elders, external
actors, and intermediaries can contribute and sway election outcomes. This raises the question of the extent of the impact of these contributing factors upon election outcomes. This paper examines the impact that political fragmentation has had on elecelections,
particularly because of the clan relations that are constantly changing and dynamic. Through evaluating the pre-existing landscape, current clan relations, and election outcomes, this paper intends to examine the extent of these factors’ roles in election outcomes. [...]